Spring Training Thoughts Part 2

Spring Training is nearing it’s end, and the opening day roster is coming into view. The time is almost here for the Indians to break camp and head North to start the 2021 Baseball Season! So here is the second part of my Spring Training thoughts on the 2021 Indians, starting with a slightly deeper look/projection of the pitching staff. 

To begin with, here is how I see the Indians opening the season as far as five man rotation goes. Because of the amount of off days, the Indians won’t need a fifth starter until April 16th, and even then they technically won’t need one again until April 26th. Therefore they can go with a four man rotation for the majority of the month of April if they do desire, with perhaps keeping the fifth starter as an extra arm out of the bullpen initially. All that being said here is my projection for five starters to start the season: 

1. Shane Bieber

2. Zach Plesac

3. Aaron Civale

4. Triston McKenzie

5. Logan Allen

Logan Allen has had a great Spring. He also is left handed, and the Indians haven’t had a lefty in their rotation regularly in over six years. He came into camp having lost weight and put a ton of effort into his offseason pitching training, and it has showed. That is why I think he will break camp as the fifth starter over Cal Quantrill, who while still someone I think will be really good, had a rough Spring and likely will need some time at extended Spring Camp and then in the minor league season to get things squared away. 

Now the bullpen is a little more hard to figure out. So far we know six that guys have made the team for sure in Bryan Shaw, Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Nick Wittgren and Oliver Perez are all guaranteed spots. It is expected the Indians will go with an eight man bullpen, so that leaves two more spots up for grabs. I think Phil Maton has a good shot at breaking camp with the Indians, and I also see Adam Plutko being kept due to him being out of options. That covers the initial eight man bullpen.

Now we move to the position players. Guaranteed spots are

C Roberto Perez

1B Jake Bauers

2B Cesar Hernandez

3B Jose Ramirez

SS Andres Gimenez

RF Josh Naylor

CF Ben Gamel

LF Eddie Rosario

DH Franmil Reyes

So that leaves four roster spots to make up the bench. My predictions: 

C Austin Hedges

IF Yu Chang

OF Jordan Luplow

IN/OF Amed Rosario

Now of course, this will change throughout the season, which is why Indians television announcer Rick Manning recently said one shouldn’t make too much of the initial opening day roster because it will change throughout the season, and the team you start with often won’t be the same team come September. That being said, I have a couple of predictions on how things will change as the season goes along. 

First, I don’t see Jake Bauers lasting long at first base. He has had a terrible Spring Training and is only on the roster because he is out of options and the Indians don’t want to lose him before giving him one more shot. They also like the fact he can play the outfield as well. The hope is he finally figures it out this year, but I personally don’t see that happening. Therefore, my bold prediction is Bauers will be put on waivers and  Bobby Bradley, who has had an excellent Spring Training, will be playing first base everyday by mid-late May. 

Second, I don’t see the platoon of Ben Gamel/Amed Rosario lasting very long in the outfield. I think Daniel Johnson, though he didn’t play any centerfield this Spring Training will take over that position with a good start to his AAA season in May. Therefore the combo of Gamel, Amed Rosario and occasionally perhaps Jordan Luplow will have an expiration date. That date will likely be sometime in June. 

On a final note, there has been a lot of second guessing some of the decisions the coaching staff and Terry Francona have made this Spring in terms of sending some of the young guys who had good Spring’s down to Columbus to start the season. While I too am not sure I would have made the same decisions they have made, I am not the manager, I am simply a fan. My job is to cheer on the players the manager and front office have put on the field. Really that is what every person’s job is who doesn’t get paid by the team. Baseball is supposed to be fun, not stressful, and I think we all, myself included, get too bent out of shape about things we as fans have no control over. So when the season kicks off on Thursday, let’s all try and be better at enjoying the game for what it is, a hobby and at times fun distraction for us. Nothing more, nothing less. Go Tribe!

2021 Cleveland Indians Outlook. Spring Training Throughts At The Halfway Point

At the end of the Covid shortened 2020 MLB season, I stated the Indians had some work ahead of them this off season to overhaul their offense. First and foremost I stated they needed to get some bats in return for their star shortstop Francisco Lindor. Secondly I wrote they needed to focus on developing some hitters in the minors the way they have been developing pitchers the last seven years. 

Well they have done some of what I suggested and also done a few things that I didn’t expect, but have certainly not hurt their much needed retooling of their offense. First off, in trading Fracisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco they got two legit hitters. First they received Andres Gimenez and so far this Spring he has looked like he will slide right in to Lindor’s vacated shortstop position with ease. He is showing the signs already of being an elite defender, and has done nothing but hit all Spring as well. Secondly, they received Amed Rosario, who until Gimenez came up to the big leagues last September, was the Mets starting shortstop. Rosario is not the defender that Gimenez is, so while he has more experience it does not appear the Indians are keen on making him their opening day shortstop. However, he has hit really well this Spring so the Indians are looking at putting him in the outfield to keep his bat in the lineup. 

That leads to my second point though, which was the Indians needed to overhaul their outfield as last season they had an abysmal amount of offensive production from all three outfield positions. This is where they did something I didn’t expect this offseason. They went out and signed a big bat in Eddie Rosario to a one year contract to be their everyday left fielder. The man will easily hit 30 homers and possibly drive in 90-100 runs this season barring he stays healthy, which he has for most of his career. So the rest of Spring Training is to determine who plays Center and Right Field this year. 

Center field could be covered by a plethora of options. I just mentioned Rosario is now taking reps there, but also Oscar Mercado and Bradley Zimmer are options. Both need to prove themselves though, as Zimmer has not been the same since his rookie campaign of 2017, due to injuries and just overall less than exciting play. Mercado similarly had a terrific 2019 rookie campaign but looked completely lost last year, albeit during a 60 game season. So far they have played decently well this Spring, but we will need to see more progress to ensure they win a starting job. 

Right field seems to belong to a platoon of Josh Naylor and Jordan Luplow. Luplow has been hampered by a sore ankle so far this Spring and hasn’t played in a game yet. However, he historically crushes left-handed pitching, so his spot should be relatively secure barring he is healthy by April 1st. Naylor is a good contact left handed hitter and he will likely play right field against right handed pitchers. He has potential to develop more power as he gains more experience, and may even share some time at first base this season. Which leads to the next discussion, our infield. 

Surprisingly the Indians also spent money to bring back free agent Cesar Hernandez to man second base for the 2021 season. Hernandez was one of the Indians’ most consistent hitters in the short 2020 season, and bringing him back is a very helpful move. Jose Ramirez of course will patrol third base. He is the Tribe’s best hitter and flat out best player. Barring injury third base is set for the Indians. Shortstop as mentioned earlier is looking more and more like it will be Andres Gimenez’s spot, unless he starts to struggle as the season winds on. First base is the biggest question to answer for the remainder of the Spring. Bobby Bradley trimmed down this off season and has looked really good at the plate, crushing some massive home runs. However, Jake Bauers, out of minor league options, is in a make it or break it month. It is hard to think the Indians will give up on him, as he is a solid defender and has raw power. However, he will need to show he can hit more consistently than in 2019 when he split time between first base and the outfield. Bobby Bradley has a minor league option left, Bauers does not. It may come down to that in the final decision for first base at the end of camp. Regardless, I think Bobby Bradley is the first baseman of the future. If Bauers hits well, he can always move to left field for 2022, after Eddie Rosario’s one year deal is up. 

It has also been great to see both Gabriel Arias and Owen Miller exceeding all expectations so far in their first Spring with the Indians. While they are likely a year away from being major league ready yet, the Indians suddenly have some really good looking young hitters on the farm. Being that Cesar Hernandez is only back on a one year contract, it means that one of these two young infielders will probably take over the second base job next season. Not to mention the Indians still have top prospect Nolan Jones bouncing between third base and the outfield attempting to earn his way onto the club either before the 2021 Season is over or certainly in 2022 as well. Daniel Johnson also is having a solid spring, making us all wonder how long before he will be in Cleveland in the big leagues for good!

As we sit at the halfway point of Spring Training, I haven’t even discussed the pitching. I will do that in more detail as we near opening day. But I will say old friend Bryan Shaw has been impressive so far this spring as he looks to earn a spot in the bullpen. Emmanuel Clase has looked excellent and James Karinchak has been a bit wild, but no doubt has the stuff to be an elite reliever soon, if not by the start of the season. Also the projected starting five being Shane Bieber, Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie is exciting. Logan Allen has also looked good. Same with newcomer Sam Hentges. As per usual the Indians have pitching depth, and while it has gotten a bit more shallow with the loss of Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Mike Clevinger, the players they received in those trades are paying dividends already and will only continue to do so.  This really should be a fun season. Will the Indians make the playoffs? That I am not sure of, but I feel confident they will be in the hunt all year. I will give more detailed prediction in a little over two weeks when the Tribe heads North.